Is the NFL learning to love running backs again? Bijan Robinson and RB contract trends

Over the past decade, assessing the financial value of running backs has been a perplexing exercise. Trends for running-back contracts have been a roller coaster; Bijan Robinson’s record-setting extension on Tuesday is another high point.

With Robinson’s contract done, likely laying the groundwork for Jahmyr Gibbs’ monster extension from the Detroit Lions, are running backs making a financial comeback?

The 2023 offseason was an inflection point for the position. The Dallas Cowboys released Ezekiel Elliott, who still had four years remaining on an extension he signed in 2019 after a lengthy holdout that lasted through training camp. At the time, Elliott’s contract was the richest for a running back in NFL history. After releasing Elliott, Dallas placed the franchise tag on his backup, Tony Pollard, locking him in for one season. During that 2023 offseason, the Las Vegas Raiders also placed the franchise tag on Josh Jacobs, who was coming off a rushing crown. The New York Giants had let Saquon Barkley play out his entire rookie contract before placing the franchise tag on him. Jonathan Taylor was hampered by an ankle injury in 2022, but had a dominant 2021 season during which he led the league in rushing yards, rushing touchdowns and rushing first downs. Taylor wanted an extension done before entering the final year of his rookie deal in 2023.

Pollard played the 2023 season in Dallas, then the Cowboys let him walk in free agency. Jacobs and the Raiders agreed to a one-year deal instead of the franchise tag; his 2023 season was cut short due to injury and the Raiders allowed him to walk in free agency. Barkley played the 2023 campaign on the franchise tag before the Giants let him walk in free agency, too. Taylor and the Colts agreed to an extension in early October after the running back held out of the first four games of the season. Taylor’s extension averaged $14 million per season, falling short of resetting the market at the position. Taylor’s three-year extension was not only below the $16 million average annual value (AAV) from Christian McCaffrey’s contract in 2020 with the Carolina Panthers, but also below Elliott’s 2019 deal with the Cowboys, which carried an AAV of $15 million.

During the 2023 offseason, active running backs around the league got together on a Zoom call to discuss the bear market for their position.

“The biggest thing is that we’re the only position that our production hurts us the most,” running back Nick Chubb said at the time. “If we go out there and run for 2,000 yards with so many carries, the next year they’re going to say you’re probably worn down. That’s the biggest thing that I took from it. It’s tough. It hurts us just to go out there and do good. It hurts us at the end of the day.”

According to Spotrac, there were at least eight running backs that accounted for 4 percent of their team’s salary cap in terms of AAV from 2011 through 2023. In 2024, only five running backs met that threshold. Only seven hit that mark in 2025.

However, that number is set to jump back into double digits this season for the first time since 2021. It includes a handful of feature backs who signed extensions this offseason: Breece Hall with the New York Jets, De’Von Achane with the Miami Dolphins and Robinson with the Falcons. The figure also includes a big free agency signing (Kenneth Walker with the Kansas City Chiefs) and a high draft pick (Jeremiyah Love with the Arizona Cardinals). Gibbs’ looming extension with the Lions will only bolster that total moving forward.

While 2023 escalated tensions for running backs looking for contracts, the value for the position most significantly decreased through the 2010s. In a span of 10 days just before the 2011 season, the Tennessee Titans signed Chris Johnson to an extension that had an AAV of $13.5 million. The Minnesota Vikings responded a few days later by giving Adrian Peterson an extension that had an AAV of $14.2 million. It took nearly seven years before the market was reset, when the Los Angeles Rams gave Todd Gurley a contract that snuck by Peterson’s AAV at $14.375 million. Even though Gurley’s contract inched by Peterson’s, salary-cap context matters. In 2011, the NFL salary cap was set at just over $120 million, while in 2018 it had climbed to over $177 million. Peterson accounted for 12 percent of his team’s cap while Gurley was just over 8 percent of his team’s cap when he signed in 2018.

In between Peterson’s 2011 deal and Gurley’s 2018 deal, Le’Veon Bell also had a tumultuous contract situation play out. In 2017 and 2018, the Pittsburgh Steelers placed the franchise tag on him in two consecutive seasons. Bell held out the second time in 2018 and missed the entire season before signing with the Jets the ensuing offseason.

Since entering the league in 2017, McCaffrey has done a lot of the heavy lifting for the running back market. In 2020, his $16 million AAV in his extension with the Panthers set a new mark for running backs. Four years later, McCaffrey topped his own previous mark when he signed an extension with the San Francisco 49ers that carried $19 million AAV, crossing his own previous record by a whopping $5 million. That stands as the biggest market reset at the position in NFL history.

McCaffrey’s payday set Barkley up to cash in with the Philadelphia Eagles in 2025; he got an extension that included $20.6 million AAV. Robinson upped the number to $22.25 million on Tuesday, with Gibbs potentially giving the ceiling another bump.

Why running backs are seeing a boost in value is a more nuanced discussion. As is evident with the current leaderboard of Robinson, Barkley and McCaffrey, the running backs that are getting paid are usually players who are versatile weapons in an offense, in the running game and passing game. There is also something to be said about how defensive systems are evolving, as well as offensive systems that are able to get the most out of what a talented running back has to provide.

As history shows, the financial trends at the position can change quickly. But for now, the arrow is pointing up for running backs around the NFL.