Dana Brown doubles down: Astros ‘anticipate’ buying at trade deadline

CHICAGO — Before the Houston Astros’ longest winning streak since March ended Sunday, general manager Dana Brown doubled down. He has broadcast his intention to buy before the Aug. 3 trade deadline on numerous occasions, despite speculation that a selloff could be coming. In any other season, or perhaps under any other front office, the latter option might make sense.

But these are the Astros, led by a GM in the final season of his contract, managed by a man facing the same fate and owned by someone averse to anything associated with a rebuild. Even if there’s reason to believe starting one would be in the franchise’s best interest, asking an executive on an expiring deal to kickstart it would be curious.

With Brown’s contract set to expire after the season, this club must make the playoffs if he has any chance to receive another one. Merely playing postseason baseball might not guarantee Brown or manager Joe Espada new deals in Houston, but missing out on it altogether might seal their fates with owner Jim Crane.

Earlier this month, Brown called reaching the postseason “the end all, be all.” Expecting him to operate with any other mindset is absurd — both for his own future and for Espada’s ability to hold together a clubhouse that has clawed back to the precipice of playoff contention after a 20-31 start.

“The division is wide open. The wild card is wide open. There’s some parity there. There’s a lot of teams bunched up,” Brown said on the Astros pregame radio show Sunday. “I think the team that gets hot is going to be the team that takes the run. We would anticipate that we’re going to be buyers.”

Brown’s comments are not a revelation, even if they run counter to MLB conventional wisdom. The Astros have a minus-47 run differential and are three games under .500 following Sunday’s 12-3 loss to the Chicago White Sox. They have not been above .500 since April 6. FanGraphs gives Houston a 27.4 percent chance to reach the postseason. Only five American League teams have longer odds.

Dangling shortstop Jeremy Peña, closer Josh Hader or either of the Astros’ corner infielders — Isaac Paredes and Christian Walker — could produce the sort of return package needed to revive a farm system the industry does not hold in high regard. Doing so during a deadline with so few sellers might even increase the value of a potential return.

But the team’s appetite to do so seems nonexistent. The 2026 Astros are so depth-starved and reliant on their top-end talent that trading Paredes, Peña, Hader or ace Hunter Brown would all but eliminate their playoff hopes. And getting this team to the postseason is Brown’s foremost objective at the deadline, not stockpiling for a future he might not be around to oversee.

The Astros could move someone like Walker while still operating as buyers, but that would require replacing Walker’s production with at least one or two offensive additions at the deadline. Though Walker is mired in a 10-for-64 funk, he is still one of just four qualified Houston hitters with an OPS+ greater than the league average.

Adding at least one bat remains Brown’s top deadline goal. He has seemed to soften his stance on acquiring a left-handed hitter — “at this point,” he said Sunday, “we’ll take whatever production we can get” — but he does believe it will be an outfielder. No outfield in baseball has a lower batting average or OPS than Houston’s.

“We’re looking for some type of offensive bat that can play the outfield,” Brown said. “If it’s a left-handed bat, great, but any type of offensive upgrade that can help lengthen the lineup would be our focus.”

Trading Walker, who has a limited no-trade clause and is owed $20 million next season, would offer the Astros more flexibility under the luxury tax. That they already created some by sending Lance McCullers Jr. to the Milwaukee Brewers is instructive of their process. It also raises questions about whether they need more relief.

Bear in mind, too, that Crane called McCullers and asked him to waive his no-trade clause. According to McCullers’ memory of their conversation, the two men discussed why the trade would “leave the Astros in a good situation leading up to the deadline.” After the deal, Brown acknowledged that it was made, in part, for financial flexibility.

Houston has paid the luxury tax in each of the past two seasons and, judging by cost-cutting moves made this offseason, the franchise wants to avoid paying it this year. If that is the case, both Walker and Cristian Javier appear to be the most likely trade candidates. Walker means more to the 2026 Astros in terms of leadership and production, and he would be a right-handed power hitter in a market without many of them.

Javier, who has a $12.8 million luxury tax salary, lost his place in Houston’s rotation after an early-season shoulder injury and has not pitched out of the bullpen since July 19. His three relief appearances have all come in games the Astros trailed by at least three runs.

Finding a way to move either Javier or Walker would allow Brown to widen his search for reinforcements, even if Houston must pay a portion of either player’s remaining salary. The Astros’ relative dearth of prospect capital makes his path feel even more realistic.

“Ultimately, if we can take from our major-league surplus — whether it’s some of the pitching we have coming back or some of the minor-league guys that we have full control over, we will do what we need to do to try and add,” Brown said.

“It has to make sense for the present and the future. As you always hear me say, I operate both in the present and the future.”

Doing so seems impossible for an executive without any assurances past Sept. 27, but Brown must try. His team boarded an Anaheim-bound jet Sunday afternoon within two games of both a playoff spot and first place in the AL West. Three gargantuan games with the current division-leading Texas Rangers loom next weekend — in the final three days before the following Monday’s 6 p.m. ET trade deadline.

Precedent suggests Brown will make a move before it. He operated as an aggressive buyer in all three of his seasons with the team before this year.

Now, with his job potentially on the line, Brown will do so again.