Nationals make smart move acquiring Early, while Red Sox bet on Mead’s adjustments

Trade details: Boston Red Sox acquire infielder Curtis Mead from the Washington Nationals for left-hander Connelly Early

The Red Sox needed another bat, particularly one with some power, and traded from an area of strength to get it by sending left-hander Connolly Early to Washington for infielder Curtis Mead. Mead, now part of his fourth organization, has had a real breakout year offensively, including 17 home runs. I don’t know if this trade is exactly what Boston needed, but for the Nationals it’s a no-brainer of a move.

The Red Sox traded Early right on time — they drafted him in the fourth round in 2024, built up his value by boosting his velocity thanks to their association with Driveline, and now trade him for something they need more than a No. 3 or 4 starter. He’s working with six different pitches now and gets a boost from plus extension out front, with the four-seamer sitting 94 and the sweeper by far his most effective pitch to date since reaching the big leagues.

He’s been hit harder than expected this year, mostly by right-handed batters, even though his changeup grades out as a 55 or better (on the traditional 20-80 scouting scale). Due to his lower arm slot and tendency to start from the first-base side of the rubber, the changeup runs back in towards righties, and if the pitch hangs up even a little bit, it ends up in a right-hander’s bat path. It’s not unfixable but it’s led to a large platoon split that explains a good bit of his troubles this season.

The sweeper is an out-pitch, and is the only pitch on which he hasn’t allowed a homer this year, so some of the solution to his issues with allowing hard contact may be using that pitch more and deprecating at least one of the others, probably the curveball. He’s currently on the IL with left elbow inflammation, which I don’t love hearing, although the Nationals have zero reason to rush him back at this point and he’s scheduled to make a rehab start next week.

Curtis Mead is a former top 100 prospect but he’d struggled in his big-league chances until this season. (Rafael Suanes / Imagn Images)

Mead provides the Red Sox right-handed power, and helps Boston somewhere, although they’ve actually hit much better against lefties this year already and probably would have been better served getting a left-handed bat if possible.

Mead’s breakout this season seems sustainable. It’s driven by better swing decisions and a greater capacity for pulling the ball in the air to get the most out of the hard contact he makes, even though his hard-hit rate is barely above the median. He’s more upright at the plate now, starting his hands lower and staying closed when he strides where he often strode open last year and would pull off the ball instead of driving it to left field.

I’d like to see him swinging more at strikes, with a career-low 57.9 percent zone swing rate this year versus an MLB average zone swing rate of 67 percent. Perhaps he’s trying only to swing at pitches he can pull in the air, which is fine as a starting point but leaves some money on the table. The Red Sox have indicated they plan to use Mead at second base, though he could see time at DH, as well. He’s a better hitter than Red Sox third baseman Caleb Durbin and could end up getting some reps at the hot corner depending on what other pieces the Red Sox move.

The trade makes Boston marginally better this year, maybe a win or so, although probably less given their lineup’s success this year against left-handed pitching. (Mead has a small platoon split this year and has generally hit lefties better in his career.)

If Early is healthy, I’d value him over Mead in the abstract, and the Nationals have far more need for young starting pitching than another corner bat, so this trade is an obvious one for them even before we consider their familiarity with Early, since Nationals president of baseball operations Paul Toboni and several of his hires all came over from Boston this winter.

It seems like another step in the right direction for the Nationals, and a great flip for them for an ex-prospect in Mead they picked up in what seemed like a minor trade in March. In that deal, they sent Boston Smith, drafted by then-scouting director Danny Haas and scouting coordinator Jordan Missal in the sixth round in 2025, to the White Sox for Mead, and both players in that deal have had breakout years. Smith looks like he’ll be a backup catcher with power, and he has a chance to become a regular thanks to the athleticism behind the plate.